Global coal consumption is expected to hit a record high this year and stay near that level until 2027 as strong demand in Asia outpaces declines in the US and Europe, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.
Global coal demand is forecast to be 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024, with Chinese demand expected to be nearly a third higher than the rest of the world, the agency said in a report.
The expected jump in demand would come at a time when the carbon-heavy resource has fallen to 35% of the global power mix, its lowest level, as strong growth in renewable power supply helps countries meet growing demand for energy, it said.
India is also expected to consume more coal than the European Union and the US combined in 2024 as demand in the Asian nation is seen up more than 5% at 1.3 billion tons, a level previously only reached by China, the report showed.
China’s dominance in the market is apparent in its high import rates, with the country set to more than double previous import records in 2024 at 500 million tonnes, the report added.
The country is expected to continue to diversify in the coming years as it accelerates wind and solar development and advances the construction of nuclear power plants, which should reduce its reliance on coal, though uncertainties remain, the agency said.
Electricity usage is also expected to grow in 2025 due to a combination of factors, including the electrification of services like transport and heating, rising demand for cooling, and increasing consumption from emerging sectors such as data centres, the report said.
“Weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand,” IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori said.
“The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term,” he added.