JP Morgan said late on Sunday it expects demand from central banks and investors to drive gold prices to $6 300 per ounce by year-end.
Gold extended its fall on Monday to $4 677.17 per ounce, as of 04:50 GMT, after falling more than 5% earlier in the session to hit its lowest in more than two weeks. Bullion had scaled a record high of $5 594.82 on Thursday.
“We remain firmly bullishly convicted in gold over the medium-term on the back of a clean, structural, continued diversification trend that has further to run amid a still well-entrenched regime of real asset outperformance vs paper assets,” the brokerage said in a note.
JP Morgan now forecasts central-bank gold purchases at 800 tons in 2026, citing an ongoing, unexhausted trend of reserve diversification.
Meanwhile, in silver, with prices at $80 an ounce since late December, the drivers of the continued rally have become harder to pinpoint and quantify, making it more cautious, JPMorgan said.
Spot silver fell over 6% to $78.90 an ounce on Monday. It hit a record high of $121.64 on Thursday before touching a near one-month low on Friday.
Moreover in the case of silver, without central banks as structural dip buyers as in gold, there remains the risk for a further move back higher in the gold-to-silver ratio in the coming weeks, the brokerage added.
“We still do see a higher floor for silver on average (around $75-$80/oz) for now vs our previous expectations as, even after overshooting in its catch-up to gold, silver is unlikely to fully relinquish its gains,” JP Morgan said.