Goldman Sachs said recently it sees downside risks to its 2027 copper price forecast of $15 400 a metric ton after the US midterm elections, citing AI-related positioning and lower US tariff expectations.
“The main risk to our forecast stems from positioning rather than physical demand,” Goldman Sachs said in a note, referring to AI-related market exposure.
Investors have become more cautious about the AI boom amid concerns that a Democrat-controlled Congress could slow AI investment and data-centre expansion.
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.2% at $13 612/ton but headed for a weekly loss amid an AI rout.
If positioning stays at current levels, copper prices could average around $14 600/ton in 2027, Goldman Sachs said.
Goldman Sachs said lower tariff expectations put its US stockbuilding assumption at risk but highlighted that the Democratic sweep does not eliminate the tariff risk.
“We estimate copper would average around $14 500/ton in 2027, with further downside if most of the US inventories built up this year flowed back to the rest of the world,” it said.