Critical minerals could be worth more than $100 billion annually by 2050 to the West Australian economy, according to the latest Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC) report on the mining and resources sector.
The ‘WA’s Resources Sector in Transition’ report found the resources sector continues to underpin the state’s economy, contributing $200 billion each year and driving jobs, exports and government revenue.
The report said conditions that have delivered decades of prosperity are rapidly shifting, with decarbonisation, technological change and intensifying global competition reshaping resource markets.
According to the report, those factors meant the next phase of growth will be driven by value not volume.
Report co-author and BCEC director Professor Alan Duncan said Western Australia was entering a pivotal period that required a deliberate shift towards higher-value industries, processing and innovation to fully capture the opportunities available.
“For decades, our prosperity has been built on extracting and exporting resources,” Professor Duncan said.
“That model has served Western Australia incredibly well, but the next chapter will look different.
“The big question is not whether we have the resources. It’s whether we can create more jobs, more industries and more long-term value from them before they leave our shores.”
The report’s authors said critical minerals exploration and processing had a crucial role to play in helping to continue the state’s prosperity.
While iron ore remains a cornerstone of WA’s economy, generating around $126 billion in economic output and accounting for more than 80 per cent of WA’s royalty revenue, the report said it will account for a declining share in output over time.
At the same time, demand for critical minerals needed for batteries, electric vehicles, renewable energy and emerging technologies is expected to grow strongly over coming decades.
Report co-author Dr Silvia Salazar said WA had a rare opportunity to build on its existing strengths, if it acts now.
Under future scenarios modelled in the report, critical minerals, processing and other value-added industries could generate more than $100 billion a year by 2050 – a fivefold increase from around $20 billion today, she said.
“We have the minerals, the expertise and the global reputation to be a leader in the industries emerging from the global energy transition,” Dr Salazar said.
“But success isn’t guaranteed.
“Other countries are competing hard for the same opportunities, and if we want to capture a larger share of global demand we will need the right energy, infrastructure, skills and investment settings in place.”
“One of the key lessons from the report is that policy settings matter,” Professor Duncan said.
“The difference between one fiscal arrangement and another can amount to billions of dollars over the life of a project.
“The challenge is making sure today’s mining wealth becomes tomorrow’s industries, jobs and fiscal value.
“Every tonne we extract should help build a stronger future for Western Australia.”