Annual electric power generated from solar will surpass that of coal in Texas for the first time in 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.
By the numbers:
Utility-scale solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas grid in 2026, compared to 60 billion kilowatt-hours from coal.
Solar generation is expected to climb to 99 billion kilowatt-hours in 2027. Coal power generation is expected to increase at a much lower rate, up to 66 billion kilowatt-hours.
Big picture view:
While solar power generation is increasing in the Lone Star State, it still pales in comparison to the energy produced by natural gas, which accounts for around 44% of all electricity generation in the state.
Still, solar’s footprint is increasing and has climbed from 4% of all energy generated in Texas in 2021 to 12% in 2025. Coal’s share of energy generation has dropped from 19% to 13% over the same time period.